In typical fashion, it is the weekend and I've been awake since 6:30. Since it's counterproductive for me to lie in bed, turning things over in my head, and then getting worked up about these stupid things, I decided to get up. Plus, that means JK^2 can sleep in peace for a couple more hours without me tossing and turning. I made myself a cup of tea (Irish Breakfast - it was a little too strong), and ate some of the raisin bread that I bought at the store yesterday. I love fresh-made raisin bread! This stuff was made on Friday!
We finally planned our trip. We weren't sure we were going to take one. We started out with grandiose ideas - Turkey, or Rome, or taking a 2-week cruise around the tip of South America. These are all places we'll go someday. But not this time. After looking at the expense of these trips, as well as the amount of sitting in a plane, we questioned whether we should do a trip at all. My job prospects are uncertain at this point because of the economy, and judging from the rate that my belly is currently growing, I may be on the large side next month, when we plan to go. Not much fun sitting on a plane for 12 hours when you're worried about blood clots and you have to get up every hour to go to the bathroom. I'm also somewhat restricted as far as how long I should be walking, etc. I need to take it easy. Spending a week walking around Rome would be super cool and I don't know when we'll have the opportunity to do that for several years. But I think it would be too much this time around. Plus, it would be expensive.
But we still wanted to do a trip. We probably won't be traveling again for a while. Plus, it's only a month away. How big am I really going to be? I've only started really showing over the past couple of weeks, and for the most part, I still feel fine.
So we decided to take the trip we had to cancel last winter when I got the flu. We are flying out to Las Vegas, renting a car, and driving. We'll probably go to the Grand Canyon, which neither of us has ever seen. It seems that since we've lived in the U.S. for 30+ years and have seen large parts of Europe as well as small portions of South America and Africa, it's time to see a major part of our own country. The Grand Canyon is a big thing not to have seen. So if the weather is right, we will drive there. If the weather isn't right, we can drive to southern Arizona instead, or up into Utah. By flying into Las Vegas, we're very flexible.
Yes, this will still involve the same issues with sitting and need of bathroom. But I think I'll be OK. There are lots of opportunities to stop and you have more control when you're the one driving the car. An added bonus is that we got the plane tickets for free with JK^2's frequent flier miles. That cuts the expenses by a lot.
I'm really happy about the trip. We'll get a much-needed break from the cold and from work.
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Thursday, January 1, 2009
New year, part 2
But having written the post about the bad omen, I will now wish everyone out there a happy new year. Here are a couple of photos of our house, decorated for the holidays:
Our stockings on the banister:
Our tree:
We had a pretty low-key new year's eve. We were originally going to go to a friend's house for a party. But it snowed all day and Somerville had called a snow emergency. A snow emergency means that you can only park on the odd side of the street, which really limits where you can park. Then there's the fact that most leftover parking spaces have snow drifts that you have to dig out before you can park in them. So we decided not to go because of the parking problem and the scary prospect of driving around on snowy roads with a bunch of drunk people in the other cars. We stayed at home instead. We worked on a puzzle for a while, but then I got so tired and couldn't stay awake. So I napped for a while, and then woke up around 11:45. I was awake for the new year and then we went to bed. We must be getting old. Staying awake til midnight used to be so easy. Of course, that was back when waking up early for me was 9:00am. :)
Today we're doing our normal tradition of going to Mary Chung's in Cambridge for lunch. We're meeting the friends whose party we were supposed to attend last night. It is very cold outside. But the way we know that we're not in Buffalo any more is that it's actually sunny out! Buffalo is so gray in the winter.
Happy new year!
Our stockings on the banister:
Our tree:
We had a pretty low-key new year's eve. We were originally going to go to a friend's house for a party. But it snowed all day and Somerville had called a snow emergency. A snow emergency means that you can only park on the odd side of the street, which really limits where you can park. Then there's the fact that most leftover parking spaces have snow drifts that you have to dig out before you can park in them. So we decided not to go because of the parking problem and the scary prospect of driving around on snowy roads with a bunch of drunk people in the other cars. We stayed at home instead. We worked on a puzzle for a while, but then I got so tired and couldn't stay awake. So I napped for a while, and then woke up around 11:45. I was awake for the new year and then we went to bed. We must be getting old. Staying awake til midnight used to be so easy. Of course, that was back when waking up early for me was 9:00am. :)
Today we're doing our normal tradition of going to Mary Chung's in Cambridge for lunch. We're meeting the friends whose party we were supposed to attend last night. It is very cold outside. But the way we know that we're not in Buffalo any more is that it's actually sunny out! Buffalo is so gray in the winter.
Happy new year!
Happy new year!
It's a very bad sign. The first event of 2009 was me waking up at 6:30 to get a drink of water and realizing that our cold water pipe had frozen.
We have had this problem before. Back when we had the old crappy walls in our house, we had a similar incident. Jim ended up ripping open a wall and seeing that the prior owners had insulated that wall by putting insulation on the inside of the house - with the pipes on the outside, not insulated. And the cold water pipe happens to run up the outer wall of our house, between our front hall and the unheated front porch.
We thought we'd solve the problem by putting the insulation on the correct side of the pipes - so that they would benefit from the heat in our house. This was accomplished last spring when we had our walls redone. Jim had also installed one of those cords that you put next to the pipe, and then if it freezes, you can plug it in in the basement and it's supposed to warm up the pipe. The problem with the cord is that we're now convinced it's a fire hazard. It was OK when the wall was open (we had a hole in our wall for several years before redoing the walls), but now that it's closed up, it's more worrying. Having an undetected fire in one of our walls is far worse than a frozen pipe.
But here we have the first really cold night since we redid the walls: it was 2 degrees at 6:30 this morning, with a windchill of -10. And the problem is back. Ugh.
Jim tried to warm up the pipe by running the hot water. The hot water pipe is right next to the cold water pipe, so he hoped that it would give off heat. Also, we warmed up the house. We keep it in the low 60's at night. About an hour later, the water thawed. Phew. No burst pipes.
As I was lying in bed, trying to go back to sleep, I thought about how most people have small house problems. Like a window that isn't insulated and is letting some cold air in. Or a kitchen that's ugly and needs to be redone. Normally, people just have to do some routine maintenance on their houses.
Our maintenance includes new furnace, new roof, new walls, new insulation, replacing 90-year-old windows with cracks in them, and worrying about whether our pipes are going to burst at any moment because the people who built this house didn't realize that it got cold in New England in the winter.
Jim reminded me that other people have problems too. Other people have had pipes burst. Other people have had flooding in their basement. Yes, that's true. It just feels like we're always the ones with the problems. Maybe those people feel that way too. And I will agree that things have definitely gotten better at our house in the last 8 years that we've been here. For example, we have lights in our kitchen and foyer that are not florescent outlets that belong in a bathroom vanity mirror. And we have already covered most of the major projects on the house. We've done major work on the HVAC system, the electrical system, the structural integrity of the house, the roof, and the insulation of the house (through windows and wall insulation). We should be getting to the point where we're more worried about maintenance and cosmetics than overhaul.
But hopefully this pipe issue isn't a bad omen for the year. :)
We have had this problem before. Back when we had the old crappy walls in our house, we had a similar incident. Jim ended up ripping open a wall and seeing that the prior owners had insulated that wall by putting insulation on the inside of the house - with the pipes on the outside, not insulated. And the cold water pipe happens to run up the outer wall of our house, between our front hall and the unheated front porch.
We thought we'd solve the problem by putting the insulation on the correct side of the pipes - so that they would benefit from the heat in our house. This was accomplished last spring when we had our walls redone. Jim had also installed one of those cords that you put next to the pipe, and then if it freezes, you can plug it in in the basement and it's supposed to warm up the pipe. The problem with the cord is that we're now convinced it's a fire hazard. It was OK when the wall was open (we had a hole in our wall for several years before redoing the walls), but now that it's closed up, it's more worrying. Having an undetected fire in one of our walls is far worse than a frozen pipe.
But here we have the first really cold night since we redid the walls: it was 2 degrees at 6:30 this morning, with a windchill of -10. And the problem is back. Ugh.
Jim tried to warm up the pipe by running the hot water. The hot water pipe is right next to the cold water pipe, so he hoped that it would give off heat. Also, we warmed up the house. We keep it in the low 60's at night. About an hour later, the water thawed. Phew. No burst pipes.
As I was lying in bed, trying to go back to sleep, I thought about how most people have small house problems. Like a window that isn't insulated and is letting some cold air in. Or a kitchen that's ugly and needs to be redone. Normally, people just have to do some routine maintenance on their houses.
Our maintenance includes new furnace, new roof, new walls, new insulation, replacing 90-year-old windows with cracks in them, and worrying about whether our pipes are going to burst at any moment because the people who built this house didn't realize that it got cold in New England in the winter.
Jim reminded me that other people have problems too. Other people have had pipes burst. Other people have had flooding in their basement. Yes, that's true. It just feels like we're always the ones with the problems. Maybe those people feel that way too. And I will agree that things have definitely gotten better at our house in the last 8 years that we've been here. For example, we have lights in our kitchen and foyer that are not florescent outlets that belong in a bathroom vanity mirror. And we have already covered most of the major projects on the house. We've done major work on the HVAC system, the electrical system, the structural integrity of the house, the roof, and the insulation of the house (through windows and wall insulation). We should be getting to the point where we're more worried about maintenance and cosmetics than overhaul.
But hopefully this pipe issue isn't a bad omen for the year. :)
Thursday, December 25, 2008
The current financial crisis, and the comming financial crisis
I was asked today what I thought about the current recession: are we at the bottom, or is there still farther to fall. I speculated that there is still farther to fall. That said, I just don't know. If I really believed there was farther to fall I would not keep buying stocks and mutual funds, yet I do. I just don't know.
However, the current recession isn't what bothers me, its the crazy inflationary period we are heading to.
"Wait!" you say, everyone is talking about deflation, why are we worried about inflation. Well, the Fed is fixing the deflation problem. In fact, that fix is going to cause the inflation problem that is coming. Here is the scenerio: The financial pipes of capitol flow are clogged. People have been saying this for a long time. Whats going on is people are not spending their money, lots of people have it, no one is spending. Because so much of our economy depends on consumer spending, and corprate investment, everyone is suffering. Think of this analogy, we all live along a nice river eating fish and growing vegtables by the side. The river got plugged up. Things are pretty dry right now, all the fish are gone and our gardens are drying up. However, there is still alot of water, its all damed up at the source of the river. The Fed has a solution, pump more water into the river. To some extent this helps. High pressure watter will help dislodge the jam, but when it all clears up, we are all about to be flooded.
When capitol starts to flow agin, there is going to be a suplus of money out there, thanks to the FEDs huge push to increase liquidity. When this flood of liquidity unleashes its going to damage our economy, its going to drive serious inflation. The fed will have to put the breaks on things. The breaks means the Fed will work as hard as possible to suck up access liquidity, like a big spunge.
Here is the problem, when the flood starts it won't be easy to tell, people will be very happy and everyone will start consuming. When the Fed finally gets around to applying the breaks, they are going to have to slam them on. And that will drop us back into a recession... Which will be bad, much like this recession.
So, here is the problem, the medicin the Fed is giving us now is just going to prolong our suffering. (We will suffer no matter what).
To answer my original question, are we at the bottom of the current recession? Well, again, I don't know, but I am quite sure we are going to enter a period of macroeconomic instability which will last for quite some time (maybe 10 years). The instability will bring us periods of great prosparity and great pain: great swings, and that isn't good.
Enjoy the ride.
However, the current recession isn't what bothers me, its the crazy inflationary period we are heading to.
"Wait!" you say, everyone is talking about deflation, why are we worried about inflation. Well, the Fed is fixing the deflation problem. In fact, that fix is going to cause the inflation problem that is coming. Here is the scenerio: The financial pipes of capitol flow are clogged. People have been saying this for a long time. Whats going on is people are not spending their money, lots of people have it, no one is spending. Because so much of our economy depends on consumer spending, and corprate investment, everyone is suffering. Think of this analogy, we all live along a nice river eating fish and growing vegtables by the side. The river got plugged up. Things are pretty dry right now, all the fish are gone and our gardens are drying up. However, there is still alot of water, its all damed up at the source of the river. The Fed has a solution, pump more water into the river. To some extent this helps. High pressure watter will help dislodge the jam, but when it all clears up, we are all about to be flooded.
When capitol starts to flow agin, there is going to be a suplus of money out there, thanks to the FEDs huge push to increase liquidity. When this flood of liquidity unleashes its going to damage our economy, its going to drive serious inflation. The fed will have to put the breaks on things. The breaks means the Fed will work as hard as possible to suck up access liquidity, like a big spunge.
Here is the problem, when the flood starts it won't be easy to tell, people will be very happy and everyone will start consuming. When the Fed finally gets around to applying the breaks, they are going to have to slam them on. And that will drop us back into a recession... Which will be bad, much like this recession.
So, here is the problem, the medicin the Fed is giving us now is just going to prolong our suffering. (We will suffer no matter what).
To answer my original question, are we at the bottom of the current recession? Well, again, I don't know, but I am quite sure we are going to enter a period of macroeconomic instability which will last for quite some time (maybe 10 years). The instability will bring us periods of great prosparity and great pain: great swings, and that isn't good.
Enjoy the ride.
Monday, December 22, 2008
Post scripts
A few quick notes:
1) We are driving in tomorrow afternoon because New York State is supposed to get freezing rain on Wednesday.
2) The car wasn't even transported to the body shop until Thursday night, and then Friday was a no-work day because of the storm. Suffice it to say that they haven't even started the body work on the car and it won't be ready in time. So we're renting a car. We ended up with a Civic.
3) I'm glad I was able to get that photo of the rug because this morning, Zeus puked on it. :) The joys of pets. I guess she just wanted to make it hers.
4) I need a vacation. I'm glad it's starting tomorrow. I hope it really will be a vacation.
1) We are driving in tomorrow afternoon because New York State is supposed to get freezing rain on Wednesday.
2) The car wasn't even transported to the body shop until Thursday night, and then Friday was a no-work day because of the storm. Suffice it to say that they haven't even started the body work on the car and it won't be ready in time. So we're renting a car. We ended up with a Civic.
3) I'm glad I was able to get that photo of the rug because this morning, Zeus puked on it. :) The joys of pets. I guess she just wanted to make it hers.
4) I need a vacation. I'm glad it's starting tomorrow. I hope it really will be a vacation.
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Nutcracker, Christmas, etc.
This evening we braved the snow and ice and drove into Boston to see the Nutcracker. It was at the Opera House, a renovated theater that was built in 1928 (? maybe?). (For those of you from Buffalo, think Shea's Buffalo). Going to see the Nutcracker is our Christmas tradition - one of the few we have here in Boston. We enjoyed it. Afterward, we got some dinner at Pho Pasteur and then headed home.
The baby really liked the Nutcracker. :) During Act 2, which is when they have the dances to represent the different types of sweets, she was kicking up a storm. :) I think she was dancing in there.
Jim got me this rug for Christmas:
Isn't it beautiful? This will be the baby's room, so it's nice to have a cozy rug. I love it with the yellow walls. It looks great. Zeus has been enjoying it too. Just now, I was sitting on it, talking on the phone, and she batted at me as if I was in her exclusive territory! Ha.
Outside, the snow has stopped but it was raining for a while. Now that the temperature is back under freezing, all the snow is icy. I am terrified of falling because of the baby so I've been moving around outside like an old person with a hip replacement.
All in all, it's been a very seasonal weekend. We're finally looking forward to Christmas.
The baby really liked the Nutcracker. :) During Act 2, which is when they have the dances to represent the different types of sweets, she was kicking up a storm. :) I think she was dancing in there.
Jim got me this rug for Christmas:
Isn't it beautiful? This will be the baby's room, so it's nice to have a cozy rug. I love it with the yellow walls. It looks great. Zeus has been enjoying it too. Just now, I was sitting on it, talking on the phone, and she batted at me as if I was in her exclusive territory! Ha.
Outside, the snow has stopped but it was raining for a while. Now that the temperature is back under freezing, all the snow is icy. I am terrified of falling because of the baby so I've been moving around outside like an old person with a hip replacement.
All in all, it's been a very seasonal weekend. We're finally looking forward to Christmas.
Snow!
Boston has gotten its first real snow of the season. In fact, with one small exception, we had not gotten any snow up until Friday. It has not stopped snowing since.
When the city was canceling school and closing offices and things on Thursday night, I was certain that we weren't going to get any snow. That's usually what happens. Everyone stays home from work and school, and then we just get rain. I just remember growing up, we NEVER had a snow day unless there was at least 2 feet of snow on the ground and it was still coming down at 6am when the principal had to decide whether to call a snow day. We prayed for snow days. I think in my whole school career in Buffalo, we had just a handful of days off because of snow. So it just strikes me as sort of wimpy (if not prudent, given the traffic nightmares of Boston) to cancel everything before the snow even shows up.
But the snow did show up this time. JK^2 and I went to work (the roads were empty), and around 2pm, it started snowing pretty hard. I was in the middle of my office's holiday party. Usually, they close the office after the holiday party anyway, so people went home after that. I stayed for a little while and then went home around 4pm. JK^2 did too. I took the T home and it was a pretty uneventful commute.
So it snowed, and snowed. Friday night we sat in and put together Christmas cards for all my clients. Saturday morning, we were awoken at 6:50 by the neighbor turning on his snowblower under our window. JK^2 snowblowed our driveway (and most of the neighbors' driveways too), then we sat in most of the day. We drove into the city in the evening for Christmas parties. Cambridge and Somerville had gotten a lot of snow too, but it wasn't still snowing. We had to dig out a parking spot next to Jen's house.
This morning, it is much warmer (32 degrees) but it is still snowing. JK^2 is snowblowing again. Here is the scene outside:
From our front door, looking across the street:
From the backdoor:
There is some talk that it might turn to rain, so JK^2 is trying to clear the driveway before that happens, so it doesn't all turn to ice.
The big question for us is how we're going to get to Buffalo on Wednesday. There is supposed to be another storm then, and it is questionable whether we will have our car in time. We'll know more about the car tomorrow. As discussed in my prior post, the car has been in the shop for a week and we haven't heard from the glass shop in a few days. We're starting to think of other options, but there aren't many. We might have to drive in on Tuesday instead, but we may not have the car. The train to Buffalo on Tuesday is sold out, and air fare is unaffordable. The rental car that we currently have is a crappy Hyundai with a broken radio that is about the size of a clown car, and about as reliable. So I guess the worst case scenario is we rent a more reliable car and use it for our trip to Buffalo.
So I guess you'll all have to stay tuned on that front.
Our plans for today involve going to see the Nutcracker in Boston at 5:30, with dinner beforehand. But we'll take the T for that. All the towns are having snow emergencies, which means that parking is not allowed on a lot of streets. The T will be OK though.
I guess we're having a white Christmas after all.
When the city was canceling school and closing offices and things on Thursday night, I was certain that we weren't going to get any snow. That's usually what happens. Everyone stays home from work and school, and then we just get rain. I just remember growing up, we NEVER had a snow day unless there was at least 2 feet of snow on the ground and it was still coming down at 6am when the principal had to decide whether to call a snow day. We prayed for snow days. I think in my whole school career in Buffalo, we had just a handful of days off because of snow. So it just strikes me as sort of wimpy (if not prudent, given the traffic nightmares of Boston) to cancel everything before the snow even shows up.
But the snow did show up this time. JK^2 and I went to work (the roads were empty), and around 2pm, it started snowing pretty hard. I was in the middle of my office's holiday party. Usually, they close the office after the holiday party anyway, so people went home after that. I stayed for a little while and then went home around 4pm. JK^2 did too. I took the T home and it was a pretty uneventful commute.
So it snowed, and snowed. Friday night we sat in and put together Christmas cards for all my clients. Saturday morning, we were awoken at 6:50 by the neighbor turning on his snowblower under our window. JK^2 snowblowed our driveway (and most of the neighbors' driveways too), then we sat in most of the day. We drove into the city in the evening for Christmas parties. Cambridge and Somerville had gotten a lot of snow too, but it wasn't still snowing. We had to dig out a parking spot next to Jen's house.
This morning, it is much warmer (32 degrees) but it is still snowing. JK^2 is snowblowing again. Here is the scene outside:
From our front door, looking across the street:
From the backdoor:
There is some talk that it might turn to rain, so JK^2 is trying to clear the driveway before that happens, so it doesn't all turn to ice.
The big question for us is how we're going to get to Buffalo on Wednesday. There is supposed to be another storm then, and it is questionable whether we will have our car in time. We'll know more about the car tomorrow. As discussed in my prior post, the car has been in the shop for a week and we haven't heard from the glass shop in a few days. We're starting to think of other options, but there aren't many. We might have to drive in on Tuesday instead, but we may not have the car. The train to Buffalo on Tuesday is sold out, and air fare is unaffordable. The rental car that we currently have is a crappy Hyundai with a broken radio that is about the size of a clown car, and about as reliable. So I guess the worst case scenario is we rent a more reliable car and use it for our trip to Buffalo.
So I guess you'll all have to stay tuned on that front.
Our plans for today involve going to see the Nutcracker in Boston at 5:30, with dinner beforehand. But we'll take the T for that. All the towns are having snow emergencies, which means that parking is not allowed on a lot of streets. The T will be OK though.
I guess we're having a white Christmas after all.
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